Desenvolvimento do padrão de crescimento urbano: modelação da dinâmica do solo urbano em Andaluzia

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação GeográficaFrom the diverse range of approaches available to model land use changes models, in this study the objective is to highlight the potential of a specific toll to predict changes in land use, Artificial Neural Networks. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of Artificial Neural Networks to predict urban land changes at regional scale, using different calibrations of the Land Transformation Model. This model uses a learningmachine to quantify and model the behavior and the complex patterns of land use and the Geographic Information System to manage the database, develop predictive variables, spatial analysis and to evaluate the results. The LTM was parameterized to the Andalusia region, to explore how factors such as line of the coastline, watercourses, roads, highways, urban land, recreational areas, population density, the railroads, airports, forest soil, agricultural soil, big cities, can influence urbanization pattern, using two different periods, from 1987 to 2003 and 1995 to 2003. (...

Land allocation and suitability analysis for the production of food, feed and energy crops in the period 2010 - 2050 EU Reference Scenario 2013 LUISA platform – Updated Configuration 2014

Since land is a finite resource, the competition for land among different uses has become a real problem. Competition for land takes place when different alternative uses (such as agriculture, forestry, energy or/and natural conservation) are competing for the same piece of land. When the competition for land is highly intense in a given territory, a specific land use/cover might cause the displacement of another one, leading to land-use conversion and, potential negative environmental, economic and social impacts. In the long term, this exacerbated competition might increase the pressure on the land and the impacts on the land capacity to support ecosystems and productive systems. Methodologies and tools to assess the potential impacts of bioenergy development in the EU on land uses and functions provide useful insight to shed light on the environmental impacts of energy policies. The territorial assessment carried out by the Land Use-based Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform highlights where in Europe the current macro-economic trends and energy policy targets might pose a threat to our land resources in the mid to long term. This might happen, for instance, in regions where the demand for energy crops and the need for residential and industry/commerce/services functions, is forecasted to increase. Essential land uses, such as agriculture for food and feed production, could therefore be transferred to less suitable lands at a regional or local scale. The herein report explores in detail the land uses that are expected to be in direct competition for land (food, feed and energy) as a result of the EU bioenergy targets and considering the suitability characteristics of the land for these uses. The analysis is carried out per main crop group (cereals, maize, root crops, other arable crops and energy crops), as simulated by the LUISA modelling platform. The results presented highlight where and how the displacement of food and feed crops from highly suitable land to lower levels of suitability can be caused by different drivers, among which the expansion of built-up areas and dedicated energy crops. In summary, the majority of cereal, maize and root crops in Europe are allocated on land classified as highly suitable (according to local biophysical conditions, possible fertiliser input and current cropping patterns) between 2020 and 2050. However, the amount of land cultivated with food crops (cereal, maize and root crop production) is shown to experience a substantial decrease in the majority of the MSs, on average higher than 10% across the entire simulation period. On the opposite, energy crop production increases at fast pace, at times doubling the amount of allocated land from the year 2020, when they first appears in the modelling, to 2050. Due to the growth of residential and ICS (industry, commercial and services) sites, land highly suitable for the cultivation of food crops and non-food crops is increasingly being used for artificial uses. In general terms, growing crops on highly suitable land results in a cost reduction associated to inputs use, such as fertilizers, pesticides and water. However, as result of the competition, there is – in several areas in Europa - an increasing shift towards low quality land for growing food and feed crops, with environmental and economic impacts to be carefully evaluated.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Accessibility and territorial cohesion in a case of transport infrastructure improvements with changing population distributions

In the last decade or so many studies have looked into the impacts of infrastructure improvements on decreasing territorial disparities. In those studies population levels are usually assumed static, although future population levels likely change in response to changing accessibility levels as well as to other factors. This study uses future population distributions simulated by the LUMP land-use model to assess the impacts of large transport network investments on regional accessibility disparities. The results indicate that contrasting local urbanization patterns only modestly affect average national accessibility levels, but that those patterns have a considerable effect on regional inequality indicators. This underpins the importance of incorporating future population levels when assessing cohesion impacts of infrastructure investments.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

More green infrastructure is required to maintain ecosystem services under current trends in land-use change in Europe

Green infrastructure (GI), a network of nature, semi-natural areas and green space, delivers essential ecosystem services which underpin human well-being and quality of life. Maintaining ecosystem services through the development of GI is therefore increasingly recognized by policies as a strategy to cope with potentially changing conditions in the future. This paper assessed how current trends of land-use change have an impact on the aggregated provision of eight ecosystem services at the regional scale of the European Union, measured by the Total Ecosystem Services Index (TESI8). Moreover, the paper reports how further implementation of GI across Europe can help maintain ecosystem services at baseline levels. Current demographic, economic and agricultural trends, which affect land use, were derived from the so called Reference Scenario. This scenario is established by the European Commission to assess the impact of energy and climate policy up to 2050. Under the Reference Scenario, economic growth, coupled with the total population, stimulates increasing urban and industrial expansion. TESI8 is expected to decrease across Europe between 0 and 5 % by 2020 and between 10 and 15 % by 2050 relative to the base year 2010. Based on regression analysis, we estimated that every additional percent increase of the proportion of artificial land needs to be compensated with an increase of 2.2 % of land that qualifies as green infrastructure in order to maintain ecosystem services at 2010 levels.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

An assessment of dedicated energy crops in Europe under the EU Energy Reference Scenario 2013. Application of the LUISA modelling platform - Updated Configuration 2014

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of dedicated energy crops (ENCR) performed with the LUISA (Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment) modelling platform across Europe between 2020 and 2050. LUISA is configured in compliance with the “EU Energy, Transport and GHG emissions trends until 2050” document in order to ensure that the EU meet its climate and energy targets up to 2050 (EU Reference Scenario 2013, updated LUISA configuration 2014). The spatial modelling of ENCR in LUISA requires determining a set of elements such as the land demand, availability and suitability of the land, and other land categories for the ENCR cultivation. Thus, the assessment is focused on the following steps: 1) Land accounts and dominant land use/cover flows for the expansion of energy crops at European scale, 2) A suitability analysis of the land dedicated to these crops based on suitability maps, 3) Recuperation of degraded and contaminated lands for energy purpose, 4) A detailed regional analysis per each Member State (factsheets) with a summary of the main important findings, and 5) Evaluation of energy crops’ impacts on a selection of environmental indicators (provision of ecosystem services). In LUISA, the displacement and cultivation of crops solely dedicated to energy production takes place on a specific land-use class named ‘energy crop’ (ENCR), which competes in particular with the demand for others land-uses, such as for food, feed and forest. The amount of ENCR reaches about 13,549 kha in 2050 that represents, on average, 3.6% of Europe’s total available land. This expansion occurs mainly at expenses of land for food and feed (90%). Forest and natural land (9% and 1%,) represent respectively the second and third land flows towards ENCR among total land-use changes (with these flows represented respectively 9 and 1% of all land use changes). As result of this land competition, there is an increasing shift of food and feed crops towards low quality land, due not only to the ENCR expansion but also to the growth of residential and economic-driven land uses. It should also be noted that intensive agriculture practices for ENCR production might have some negative impacts on soil, water, biodiversity, amongst others. Owing to this potential impacts, the analysis performed on the supply of a set of ecosystem services identifies some services more sensitive than others to ENCR growth. In particular, pollination potential, habitat quality for birds and also the Green-Infrastructure network are expected to decrease due to ENCR growth, while patterns for recreational opportunities and water retention services are less evident.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

European landscape changes between 2010 and 2050 under the EU Reference Scenario: EU Reference Scenario 2013 LUISA platform – Updated Configuration 2014

The ‘Land-Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment’ modelling platform (LUISA) is primarily used for the ex-ante evaluation of EC policies that have a direct or indirect territorial impact. It is based on the concept of ‘land function’ for cross-sector integration and for the representation of complex system dynamics. Beyond a traditional land use model, LUISA adopts a new approach towards activity-based modelling based upon the endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities. LUISA has been applied to address the competition for land arising from the energy, transport and climate dimensions of EU policies and configured according to the EU Energy Reference scenario 2013 (updated configuration 2014) to produce high-resolution land use/cover projections up to 2050 and a related series of thematic indicators. This report describes the stocks and the main land cover/use flows (LCF) taking place in Europe in the period 2010-2050 and the processes that cause those flows, thus providing insight on how the European landscape might change if the future happens according to a reference scenario consistent with settings (economic and demographic in particular) and policies in place in 2013 (hence including in particular the 2020 renewable energy targets). Main findings: • The extent of the land for housing and leisure (urban) and industrial/commercial and services (ICS) increases, while the area of agriculture, forest and natural land decreases; • Urban and industrial land are expected to represent the highest share of net formation as % of the initial year (2010); • Energy crops appear in the model as of 2020 and are expected to reach 135,479 km2 across Europe in 2050; • Energy crops become the second most important land transformation in Europe (17%); approximately 90 % of the land consumed for energy purposes comes from land for food and feed, followed by forest and natural land; • While a large proportion of land dedicated to food and feed crops is expected to be converted into dedicated energy crops, the net land losses are very small as a results of the conversion from forest land into food and feed production; • New forest and natural land compensate in some way for quantity of losses or consumption by other uses; however the high value of the turnover indicator, reveal that those land-uses are unstable and vulnerable to the fast changes driven by economic development and climate changes, thus compromising the biodiversity and habitat conservation status; • The conversion between farming types represent 35% over the total land changes between 2010 and 2050; The results show the loss of natural and agricultural land because of ever-ongoing urbanisation and industrialization processes. The loss of natural and agricultural land for food production is even larger because of the advent of energy crops production incited by shifts in the European Energy supply system.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Direct and Indirect Land Use Impacts of the EU Cohesion Policy. Assessment with the Land Use Modelling Platform

The Cohesion policy for the programming period 2014-2020 is analyzed in terms of its likely land use and environmental impacts using the Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP). This report describes in detail the process and the methodology by which the ex-ante impact assessment was made, and presents the results for Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, and Poland. The modelling approach can provide insights on the trade-offs between economic growth, investment policies (such as the Cohesion policy), and land use and the environment. In addition, ways to mitigate potentially negative land use and environmental impacts were explored. The future development of the LUMP is discussed in view of planned future work.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

LUISA Dynamic Land Functions: Catalogue of Indicators – Release I: EU Reference Scenario 2013 LUISA Platform - Updated Configuration 2014

The concept of ‘dynamic land function’ is a new notion for cross-sector integration and for the representation of complex system dynamics. A land function can be societal (e.g. provision of housing, leisure and recreation), economic (e.g. provision of production factors - employment, investments, energy – or provision of manufacturing products and services – food, fuels, consumer goods, etc.) or environmental (e.g. supply of ecosystem services). Land functions are temporally and spatially dynamic, and are constrained and driven by natural, socio-economic, and techno-economic processes. Based on the concept of ‘land function’ and beyond a traditional land use model, the Land-Use based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform adopts a new approach towards activity-based modelling based upon the endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities. The ultimate product of LUISA is a set of territorial indicators that can be grouped and combined according to the ‘land function’ of interest and/or to the sector under assessment. The herein presented indicators measure the provision of land functions in the period 2010-2050, according to the EU Reference Scenario (LUISA, updated configuration 2014), consistent with settings (economic and demographic in particular) and policies in place in 2013 (hence including the 2020 renewable energy targets). The indicators are aggregated by Member States and Regions (Administrative Units NUTS-2) and can be employed as benchmark to monitor sectorial and territorial evolutions of alternative scenarios (e.g. to simulate policy options or specific measures), and for future updates of the reference scenario, to capture policy impacts (for example when changing energy targets) and their territorial effects. This catalogue aims to provide the description of the land functions and the list of related indicators and an indicator factsheet (metadata). 30 indicators, out of the more than 50 currently produced by LUISA, are included in the first release of the catalogue. The catalogue is periodically up-dated, following the updates of the configurations of the LUISA modelling platform and the definition, computation and validation of new indicators. Indicators and basic spatial layers used for the simulations will be made available in the frame of the framework for the management of knowledge and dissemination of information being set up by the Pilot Knowledge Centre on Territorial Policies.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Genome-wide diversity and differentiation in New World populations of the human malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax.

BACKGROUND: The Americas were the last continent colonized by humans carrying malaria parasites. Plasmodium falciparum from the New World shows very little genetic diversity and greater linkage disequilibrium, compared with its African counterparts, and is clearly subdivided into local, highly divergent populations. However, limited available data have revealed extensive genetic diversity in American populations of another major human malaria parasite, P. vivax. METHODS: We used an improved sample preparation strategy and next-generation sequencing to characterize 9 high-quality P. vivax genome sequences from northwestern Brazil. These new data were compared with publicly available sequences from recently sampled clinical P. vivax isolates from Brazil (BRA, total n = 11 sequences), Peru (PER, n = 23), Colombia (COL, n = 31), and Mexico (MEX, n = 19). PRINCIPAL FINDINGS/CONCLUSIONS: We found that New World populations of P. vivax are as diverse (nucleotide diversity π between 5.2 × 10-4 and 6.2 × 10-4) as P. vivax populations from Southeast Asia, where malaria transmission is substantially more intense. They display several non-synonymous nucleotide substitutions (some of them previously undescribed) in genes known or suspected to be involved in antimalarial drug resistance, such as dhfr, dhps, mdr1, mrp1, and mrp-2, but not in the chloroquine resistance transporter ortholog (crt-o) gene. Moreover, P. vivax in the Americas is much less geographically substructured than local P. falciparum populations, with relatively little between-population genome-wide differentiation (pairwise FST values ranging between 0.025 and 0.092). Finally, P. vivax populations show a rapid decline in linkage disequilibrium with increasing distance between pairs of polymorphic sites, consistent with very frequent outcrossing. We hypothesize that the high diversity of present-day P. vivax lineages in the Americas originated from successive migratory waves and subsequent admixture between parasite lineages from geographically diverse sites. Further genome-wide analyses are required to test the demographic scenario suggested by our data

A promoção da doação de sangue altruísta e voluntária através da ação dos agentes multiplicadores entre estudantes da saúde

INTRODUÇÃO: A doação de sangue é um tema de grande relevância para a saúde pública, sendo responsável por salvar milhares de vidas todos os anos, em virtude de ser o sangue humano um produto insubstituível e, portanto, vital na atenção hematológica e transfusional. Vários são os apelos dos hemocentros brasileiros, que realizam campanhas para a captação de doadores, devido à escassez total ou ao baixo estoque sanguíneo. Nesse cenário, as coletas externas, ou mutirões coletivos, desempenham um impulso para esse ato de altruísmo, possibilitando garantir um suprimento hemoterápico eficiente e seguro. OBJETIVO: Mobilizar e motivar a comunidade acadêmica e administrativa da Faculdade Pernambucana de Saúde, incluindo estudantes, funcionários e professores, para doar sangue, bem como formar novos doadores, a partir da estratégia de multiplicar o conhecimento acerca dos aspectos da doação de sangue e da hemoterapia. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: Trata-se de um estudo descritivo, a respeito da campanha de doação de sangue promovida pelo Projeto de Extensão Corrente do Bem em parceria com a Fundação de Hematologia e Hemoterapia de Pernambuco, realizada em abril de 2022 na Faculdade Pernambucana de Saúde, que oferece oito cursos de graduação na área de saúde, na cidade de Recife, Pernambuco, Brasil. As atividades consistiam em capacitações técnicas dos extensionistas e divulgação científica por meio de materiais impressos e das redes sociais do projeto. A ação intitulada “Dia D da Doação de Sangue” se deu pela coleta de sangue externa com a unidade móvel de infraestrutura e o corpo técnico do hemocentro, no campus da instituição de ensino, incluindo estudantes, funcionários e professores. Os dados da avaliação de impacto foram em seguida coletados através de questionários autoaplicáveis impressos, respondidos por 79 doadores. Utilizou-se a escala Likert de cinco pontos e perguntas de múltipla escolha, com o intuito de conhecer a motivação para a doação de sangue diante do mutirão realizado. Os resultados da pesquisa de opinião foram digitados e revisados pelos pesquisadores no programa Sheets ® versão 1.2022.16200, sendo dispostos em Gráficos de acordo com as categorias analisadas. RESULTADOS: A ação contou com 129 candidatos triados em um dia, dos quais 89 foram considerados clinicamente aptos. Constatou-se que a maioria dos doadores eram estudantes (82,3%); distribuídos em maior parte nos períodos iniciais da graduação. Foi verificado que 40 indivíduos já eram doadores (50,6%) e que 39 tiveram a experiência pela primeira vez (49,4%). O propósito de salvar vidas foi a grande finalidade da Ação, visto que 67 doadores (84,8%) afirmaram ser essa a principal motivação. Ainda, 98,7% dos participantes relataram que a campanha fora encarregada de mobilizá-los a doar sangue. DISCUSSÃO: Houve boa adesão do público, uma vez que o número de doadores foi suficiente para preencher todas as bolsas de sangue disponibilizadas. Todas as doações foram voluntárias e destinadas a receptores anônimos para contribuir com os estoques dos hemocentros. De acordo com as respostas, o evento obteve êxito na captação de novos doadores e fidelização, já que cerca de 50% dos candidatos aptos doaram pela primeira vez e aproximadamente 91% pontuaram que doariam de novo. Outro aspecto relevante foi a prevalência de sentimentos de alegria e prazer experienciados pelos doadores, em contraste com apenas 7,6% relatando medo e dor. Ademais, os resultados deste artigo apontam que a prática do mutirão nos locais de trabalho e estudo facilita a iniciativa para doação de sangue. CONCLUSÃO: Campanhas universitárias favorecem a manutenção do estoque local de hemocomponentes, produzindo um enorme sentimento de dever cumprido para os participantes. Além disso, constituem uma estratégia de êxito na captação e fidelização de doadores. Desse modo, aplicar nas instituições de ensino a atuação de agentes multiplicadores, que é propagada pelo Ministério da Saúde para a doação de sangue, traz um positivo impacto social e, sem dúvida, em favor da saúde. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Doação de sangue. Hemoterapia. Projeto de extensão. Altruísmo. Saúde